panahs7 (05-03-17)
Äåí å÷ù äéáâÜóåé áíáëõôéêÜ ôçí êïõâÝíôá, áëëá èá ðù 2 ëüãéá. Êáèå óôïé÷çìá åéíáé áíåîÜñôçôï áðï ôï áëëï, áíåîÜñôçôï åíäå÷üìåíï äçëáäç. ÅðïìÝíùò, äåí å÷åé êáìéá óçìáóéá áí êÝñäéóåò ôçí ðñïçãïýìåíç ìåñá Þ áí Ý÷áóåò.
Áõôï óôá ìáèçìáôéêÜ öáßíåôáé êáèáñÜ ìå ôç äåóìåõìÝíç ðéèáíüôçôá, äçëáäç ôçí ðéèáíüôçôá íá óõìâåß ôï Á äåäïìÝíïõ ïôé óõíÝâç ôï Â. Êáé óôçí ðåñßðôùóç ìáò Ñ(Á\Â)=Ñ(Á).
Ôï ìïíï ðïõ üíôùò åðçñåÜæåôáé óôï óôïé÷çìá åéíáé ïôáí ìéëÜìå ãéá ðáñïëß. Ðáëé åéíáé áíåîÜñôçôá ôá åíäå÷üìåíá óå êáèå ìáôò, áëëá æçôÜìå íá ðñáãìáôïðïéçèïýí êáé ôá Í>1 ôáõôü÷ñïíá, åðïìÝíùò ïé ðéèáíüôçôåò ìáò íá êåñäßóïõìå åéíáé Ñ=Ñ(Á)·...·Ñ(Í).
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
¯ Bertrand Russell
panahs7 (05-03-17)
Äåí èõìÜìáé íá óõìöþíçóá, áëëÜ áò ñùôÞóù ìéá ôåëåõôáßá öïñÜ ìÞðùò óõíåííïçèïýìå, áêüìç êé Ýôóé íá åßíáé, ôé ó÷Ýóç Ý÷ïõí ïé áðïäüóåéò ðïõ âãÜæïõí ïé ìðïõê êáé ðùò åðçñåÜæïõí ôéò ðéèáíüôçôåò óïõ, áí Ý÷åéò ðÜåé ôáìåßï óôï ôåëåõôáßï óôïß÷çìá; Áõôü ìðïñåßò íá ìïõ ôï åîçãÞóåéò; ¼ðùò âëÝðåéò êé ï ×ñÞóôïò áðü ðÜíù ðïõ îÝñåé êáëýôåñá ìáèçìáôéêÜ, óïõ ëÝåé áíáëõôéêÜ üôé äåí ðáßæåé êáíÝíá ñüëï, óõíåðþò åßóáé ëÜèïò áí ôï ëáìâÜíåéò õðüøéí óïõ.
Ïé ðéèáíüôçôåò åéíáé áðëÞ ëïãéêÞ ìáæé ìå ìáèçìáôéêÜ. Óêåöôåßôå ôï åîÞò: ðáéæåé ï ÐáíáÞò × ôçí ÍÜðïëé êé åãù ôçí ðáéæù 2. Êåñäßæù ëïéðüí åãù êáé ï ÐáíáÞò ÷Üíåé. Êáé ðáéæù óçìåñá × ôïí èñõëï êáé ôï ðáéæåé êáé ï ÐáíáÞò ×. Ôùñá ôï × å÷åé ðåñéóóüôåñåò Þ ëéãüôåñåò ðéèáíüôçôåò íá åñèåé;
Êáé óôçí ôåëéêÞ, äåí åðçñåÜæåôáé ôï áðïôÝëåóìá êáìßáò ïìÜäáò, åðåéäÞ ï ÔÜêçò áðï ôçí ÊÜôù ÐïôÜìéá ôï ðñïçãïýìåíï âñáäõ Ý÷áóå ôçí Áëìðéíïëåöå
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
¯ Bertrand Russell
panahs7 (05-03-17)
Ãéá ìÝíá Ý÷åé óçìáóßá,ü÷é ãéá ôéò ðéèáíüôçôåò,áëëÜ ãéá ôï ýøïò ðïíôáñßóìáôïò.
ÁõôÜ ãéá ôéò ðéèáíüôçôåò íßêçò åßíáé ãíùóôÜ,áëëÜ ðñÝðåé íá îÝñïõìå üôé Üìá Ý÷åéò ðéèáíüôçôåò 20% íá êåñäßóåéò (óõíïëéêÞ áðüäïóç ðåñßðïõ 5,00) êáé 80% íá ÷Üóåéò,ôüôå ðñÝðåé íá âÜëåéò óôü÷ï óå 5 óôïé÷Þìáôá íá Ý÷åéò ìéá íßêç.
¼ìùò ôï èÝìá åßíáé üôáí ãßíåé áõôÞ ç íßêç íá Ý÷åéò ðáßîåé ðåñéóóüôåñá,ãéá íá âãÜëåéò ðåñéóóüôåñá êáé íá âãåéò êåñäéóìÝíïò.Ãé´ áõôü ðñÝðåé êáôÜ Ýíá ôñüðï íá áõîÜíåéò ôï ðïíôÜñéóìá üóï ÷Üíåéò êáé üôáí êåñäßóåéò ìå ôï êáëü íá ôï ðáò ðÜëé áðü ôçí áñ÷Þ.
sirkostas (05-03-17)
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
¯ Bertrand Russell
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
¯ Bertrand Russell
sirkostas (06-03-17)
Öôù÷ü ôï êïõðüíé ìå áóôáèÞ ðñùôáèëÞìáôá óÞìåñá.ÉäáíéêÞ ìÝñá ãéá êõíçãïýò áïõôóÜéíôåñ.Áêüìá êáé ç ÔóÝëóé äåí åßíáé value bet êáôÜ ôç ãíþìç ìïõ.
Ðñïôåßíù ôç Öñïæéíüíå 1 êáé ãéáôß ü÷é ÓôïõôãêÜñäç 2.
Åäþ ï ðßíáêáò ðïõ Ýãñáöá ÷èåò. ÐáñïõóéÜæåé ôç äéáöïñÜ áíÜìåóá óôéò ðéèáíüôçôåò êáé óôçí åðáëÞèåõóç. Óå êáìßá áðïëýôùò ðåñßðôùóç äåí åðáëçèåýåôáé ç áðüäïóç ðåñéóóüôåñåò öïñÝò áð' üóåò åßíáé ïé áñ÷éêÝò ðéèáíüôçôåò.Ôï ðéï åýêïëá êáôáíïçôü åßíáé ç áðüäïóç 2,00. Íïìßæïõìå üôé Ý÷ïõìå ðéèáíüôçôá 50/50 íá ðÜìå ôáìåßï, áëëÜ áõôÞ ç áðüäïóç åðáëçèåýåôáé óå ðïóïóôü 43%.
1.15 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 87%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (86%)
1.20 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 83%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (83%)
1.25 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 80%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (72%)
1.30 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 77%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (68%)
1.35 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 74%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (64%)
1.40 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 71%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (61%)
1.45 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 69%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (63%)
1.50 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 66%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (59%)
1.55 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 64%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (54%)
1.60 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 62%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (54%)
1.65 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 60%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (56%)
1.70 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 58%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (53%)
1.75 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 57%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (51%)
1.80 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 55%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (49%)
1.90 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 52%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (43%)
2.00 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 50%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (43%)
2.10 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 47%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (41%)
2.20 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 45%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (38%)
2.25 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 44%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (37%)
2.30 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 43%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (37%)
2.40 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 41%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (29%)
2.50 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 40%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (33%)
2.60 (Ðéèáíüôçôá 38%) - ÅðáëÞèåõóç (30%)
The Dude (06-03-17)
ÌéëÜìå ãéá ìÝóï üñï óôá ðïóïóôÜ åðáëÞèåõóçò, Þ ìå áêñßâåéá; Ãéáôß áí äåí åßíáé Ì.Ï., ôüôå äåí ìðïñþ íá êáôáëÜâù áðü ðïõ ðñïêýðôïõí áõôÜ ôá íïýìåñá ãéá ðáñÜãïíôåò ðïõ äåí Ý÷ïõí óôáèåñÞ ôéìÞ.
Áðüëõôç áêñßâåéá äåí ãßíåôáé íá õðÜñîåé, áöïý ïé åôáéñåßåò äåí äßíïõí ðáíïìïéüôõðåò áðïäüóåéò. ÁëëÜ Ý÷ïõí õðïëïãéóôåß ÷éëéÜäåò ðáé÷íßäéá ãéá íá âãïõí áõôÜ ôá ðïóïóôÜ åðáëÞèåõóçò. Ôï áíáìöéóâÞôçôï åßíáé üôé ðÜíôá ôá ðïóïóôÜ åðáëÞèåõóçò åßíáé ÷áìçëüôåñá áð' ôçí áðüäïóç ðïõ ðáßæåé ï ôæïãáäüñïò.
«ËÝãåéò ðáóÜ ìïõ íá óå ðñïóêõíÞóù. Êé åãþ ñþôçóá ôïí ðïýôæïí ìïõ êáé ìïõ åßðå íá ìç óå ðñïóêõíÞóù»...
Ãåþñãéïò ÊáñáúóêÜêçò ðñïò ôïí Ìá÷ìïýô ðáóÜ, 1823
sirkostas (06-03-17)
Õðïóôçñßæù -êáé ðéóôåýù ï ×ñÞóôïò íá äþóåé ìéá ëýóç óôç óõæÞôçóç- üôé äåí õðÜñ÷ïõí áõôÜ ôá íïýìåñá. Äéüôé áí õðÞñ÷áí ðïóïóôÜ åðáëÞèåõóçò, äåí åìðïäßæåé êáíåßò ôïí åêÜóôïôå ðáßêôç ðïõ íéþèåé ëßãï áðü ìáèçìáôéêÜ, íá ìáæÝøåé üëï ôï éóôïñéêü ðïõ ëåò êáé åßìáé óßãïõñïò üôé õðÜñ÷åé êáé íá öôéÜîåé Ýíáí ßäéï ìç÷áíéóìü áðüäïóçò, üðùò áõôüò ôùí ìðïõê. Äõóêïëåýïìáé íá ôï ðåñéãñÜøù êáëýôåñá, ç ïõóßá üóùí ðéóôåýù åßíáé ðùò äåí õðÜñ÷ïõí ðïóïóôÜ åðáëÞèåõóçò ãéá êÜèå áðüäïóç, åßíáé áðëÞ êñßóç óå ôõ÷áßïõò ðáñÜãïíôåò. Ïýôå êëÞñùóç åßíáé, ïýôå ðüêåñ ãéá íá Ý÷åéò óôáèåñÝò ôéìÝò.
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